AFL expansion into west Sydney. (Part 1)

In light of the news that the NSW State Government is withdrawing funding for the $100 million redevelopment of the Sydney Showground at Homebush, where a second AFL side was set to be based from 2012 will the expansion continue as planned? The Gold Coast expansion was only recently given the green light after the Queensland government agreed to a $60 million grant for the Carrara stadium redevelopment. There are many questions the AFL must answer before it's commitment to a second team in Sydney can be realized.

First and foremost, will the west Sydney market embrace an AFL team? Opinion varies greatly with many Sydney experts warning the AFL that it won't succeed. Admittedly most of these Sydney experts have a Rugby league background and bias against anything AFL. Their opinions must therefore be taken with a grain of salt as they push the Rugby league agenda and look to reduce the threat of AFL competition. At the other end of equation is the question of whether the AFL can continue to allow the west Sydney sports market to develop without it's presence. The increasing popularity of Soccer and growing attendance of rugby league could force the AFL's hand in establishing a team in west Sydney.

Although the AFL/VFL is one of the oldest sports leagues in the world it has really only been a national league since 1991. It's expansion from 12 clubs in 1986 to the current 16 teams has largely occurred in traditional AFL strongholds of Perth and Adelaide. Only 2 clubs have been introduced into Rugby league markets, the Sydney Swans (a relocated South Melbourne) and the Brisbane Bears (now Lions after a merger with Fitzroy). In both cases the AFL has had to grant major concessions for the teams to experience success.

Dilution of talent is a major concern whenever the league expands and not just on the playing field. The only expansion team to achieve premiership success within the first 5 years is West Coast who came into being as virtual West Australian state team but still had to wait until they had an experienced coach to achieve their success. So even if their are enough superstar player to go around the 18 teams and enough quality players to fill the rest of the squads are there enough good coaches and good administrators to run the teams well? Lets look at the examples of Fremantle and Port Adelaide, the 2 most recent expansion teams and also the second team to come into a market.

First Port Adelaide has experienced on field success, however it is currently finding things difficult off field and has recently asked the SANFL who owns it's license to work out a better stadium deal to help it's financial situation. Fremantle on the other hand is a perennial basket case on field and has had a succession of coaching changes, none of which has improved it's standing for a sustained period. Will the Gold Coast and west Sydney teams be able to put the right administrators and coaches in place to give them a culture of success? And if they do what effect does that have on the current teams. With the draft in place a team can only expect to win a premiership once every 16 years and make the top 4 once every 4 years. Increasing the number of teams will make it that much harder for everyone. Some fan bases already struggle during periods of sustained mediocrity, will they survive under increased pressure?

Part 2 of this discussion will continue tomorrow.

Please leave your comments or thoughts on any of the questions posed.