AFL expansion into west Sydney. (Part 2)

In Part 1 of the discussion I posed a couple of questions. Will the west Sydney market embrace an AFL team? Will the dilution of talent decrease the performance of the expansion team and if not how does it affect the other teams in the competition?

I'll leave the attendance figures and economic data to the AFL and instead look at other competitions around the world for examples of expansion and its success rate. Firstly as I said in Part 1, while the VFL maybe one of the oldest sporting competitions in the world, the AFL has only been truly national since 1991. In contrast most other professional sports leagues from other parts of the world have been national since their inception or became national after periods of expansion 40 - 50 years ago.

North American sport in particular has seen rapid expansion since the 1960's. In fact in 1960 there were just 43 teams across the 4 major sports, MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL. Today there are 122 teams, almost triple the amount. Every league has experienced growth, attendance totals and averages, merchandise, media deals and sport followers have risen across the board. Of course a bigger population can account for this, however tapping into profitable markets and promoting the sport across a wider range of markets has lead to huge growth.

Why have the North American leagues expanded as they have? Partly because rival leagues threatened their existence. In the AFL's case both Rugby league and Soccer can be considered rival leagues. Rival leagues reduce profit so expanding rather than contracting the AFL makes little sense until you consider that expanding tips the balance of power to the AFL by creating a presence in a market that is currently underdeveloped. Individual income increases has been the other major reason for expansion. As individuals earn more, they have more to spend on the entertainment sport provides. Interestingly during periods of economic downturn the leagues have chosen to stay put rather than contract. Extra costs are involved with contraction so it has been profitable for the leagues to ride out the down periods and wait for upswings to continue with expansion.

The AFL though is trying to expand during the current Global Financial Crises. This is in fact a delayed response to a period of huge economic growth for the league. There is money in the coffers to expand, hopefully enough to see out the current downturn.

Considering the Global Financial situation what are the other options available to the league? Delaying expansion until a renewed period of growth is an option, however that allows the rival codes to gain a foothold in the profitable markets. Relocation of teams from the Victorian heartland is another possibility, one that has been used before and discussed and attempted recently. North Melbourne to the Gold Coast wasn't received favourably so the AFL has continued with it's expansion plans. Will the economic climate force the AFL's hand this time?

Relocation is an option that has been taken many times in the North American leagues but is rarely seen in Australian sport. This is mostly due to private ownership in North America, the owners are looking to maximise profit so moving to a more profitable market makes sense. The AFL clubs however are membership based, making relocation much harder. Not that relocation in the US isn't devastating for the fans of the team. Look at the recent case of the Seattle Supersonics in the NBA being relocated to Oklahoma City. Seattle fans having had an NBA team for 40 years are now without one and also without palatable alternatives.

If the AFL is to continue to grow, expanding the number of teams is necessary. The negatives of expansion and the financial climate make it more risky however the overall risk is that without expansion the AFL will lose it's Number 1 ranking amongst sports in Australia. I think that will make the risk worth taking for the AFL.

Please post your thoughts and comments.